Monday, 12.15.2025
Futures: LME copper opened at $11,810/mt last Friday night, fluctuated upward initially and touched a high of $11,909.5/mt, then the price center moved down to a low of $11,451.5/mt before fluctuating upward again and finally closing at $11,552.5/mt, down 2.37%, with trading volume reaching 41,600 lots and open interest reaching 348,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2601 opened at 93,500 yuan/mt last Friday night, then fluctuated upward to a high of 94,360 yuan/mt, after which the price center gradually moved down and touched a low of 90,750 yuan/mt near the end of the session, finally closing at 91,550 yuan/mt, down 2.13%, with trading volume reaching 119,800 lots and open interest reaching 175,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On December 14, Lina Franco, Director of the National Mining Agency of Colombia, stated that the country will launch 14 blocks for copper mining and exploration. Franco added at an event in Bogota that the tender for this round of blocks, which will be launched next Monday, involves blocks distributed in the provinces of Antioquia, Cesar, La Guajira, and Tolima.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On December 12, SMM's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2512 contract were quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 93,330-93,860 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper rose from 93,500 yuan/mt to above 93,700 yuan/mt, the inter-month price spread showed Contango 100-50 yuan/mt, and the import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract widened to around 1,500 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to this week, after trading in the SHFE copper 2601 contract begins, the 2025 copper cathode long-term contracts have basically ended, and negotiations for 2026 long-term contracts have started. Trading activity in the merchant market is also expected to decrease. As the market enters a phase of purely spot order trading, price volatility is expected to amplify, and premiums/discounts against the SHFE copper 2601 contract are expected to remain at a discount next week.
(2) Guangdong: On December 12, Guangdong's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 70-120 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 95 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, with the average price at 0 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong's #1 copper cathode was 93,650 yuan/mt, up 865 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 93,555 yuan/mt, up 795 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, with decreased market circulating inventory, suppliers actively held prices firm, but downstream buyers were unwilling to purchase more, resulting in overall quiet trading.
(3) Imported copper: On December 12, warrant prices were $35-47/mt, QP December, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $42-52/mt, QP January, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $2-16/mt, QP January, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in mid-December and late December.
(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on December 12, the futures closing price was 93,480 yuan/mt, up 1,350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was -20 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 7,500 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 82,800-83,000 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,797 yuan/mt, down 393 yuan/mt and up 790 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,215 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, importers of recycled copper raw materials indicated that overseas copper prices hit a new record high again this week. The local European bare bright copper quotation coefficient was 98%, while the quotation range from domestic traders was 96.5-97%, making transactions nearly impossible. Therefore, traders had almost no transactions this week.
(5) Inventory: On December 11, LME copper cathode inventories increased by 50 mt to 165,900 mt; on December 12, SHFE warrant inventories increased by 1,102 mt to 32,563 mt.
Price: On the macro front, there were hawkish-dovish divisions within the US Fed, and Trump's stance on the future chair added policy uncertainty. With the interest rate cut materializing and macro tailwinds fading, coupled with increased market concerns about an AI tech bubble, copper prices came under pressure and closed lower. On the fundamentals side, supply of domestic and imported cargoes was limited, but as the year-end approached, the willingness to sell increased significantly, leading to loose supply in the spot market. Demand side, after the copper price correction, some downstream enterprises showed increased willingness to restock at low levels, but overall procurement remained cautious and did not provide a strong boost. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain under pressure today, with the price center continuing to move lower.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
